Monday, January 30, 2012

As Romney Edges Nearer Nomination So Trump Edges Nearer Third Party Run

It appears to me there are some things that are certain in this campaign season.

1. A vote for Santorum in Florida is a vote for Romney. This is not some unique insight on my part as it is obvious.You can see the same reasoning at Prof. Jacobson's Legal Insurrection site.

2. Trump advises that if the GOP nominates "a stiff" he would run. It is clear, I think he has no time for Romney and if Mitt is the nominee I would be sure Trump will run. If he does not only does he have an outside chance of winning, if there were for example a major economic meltdown before the election-which is of course possible. The latest Trump thinking, which looks ominous for the GOP is AT THIS LINK
here is the relevant extract;

ABC News’ Huma Khan and Jennifer Wlach report:

Donald Trump’s top political adviser told ABC News he’s speaking to “high-level political operatives” to explore a third-party presidential bid on behalf of the real estate mogul, in a sign that Trump may not quite be done with the 2012 presidential race just yet.
“I can confirm that over the past two weeks I have spoken with many high-level political operatives, campaign managers, finance directors — some of whom I have spoken to in the past. Most are new people from all over the country,” said Michael Cohen, executive vice president at the Trump Organization and special counsel to the reality-TV star.

But the major beneficiary of  a Trump run would of course be President Obama who would win in an, undeserved, landslide in electoral college votes. I would imagine the combined Trump/Romney popular vote to be higher than Obama's unless disgusted conservatives stay at home. What that would do to the down ticket is unimaginable.

In that scenario a Romney candidacy would be an unmitigated disaster for the GOP in 2012. On the other hand, should that happen the way for a true conservative, hopefully Palin, to run in 2016, would be opened as there would not be a RINO as nominee for generations.

The ball is in the hands of, firstly, Santorum's supporters to vote for Gingrich in Florida to ensure, at least that the race remains fluid and Santorum has a chance going forwards. Secondly it is in the hands of Republican voters to ensure that Romney doesn't get the nomination the consequences of which could be, likely will be, utterly disastrous.

The illustration of how Trump could win is AT THIS LINK

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