Tuesday, January 3, 2012

If Santorum's Iowa Win Means Brokered Convention It Was Best Possible Result

Santorum has "won" Iowa, whatever the final vote count it being so close and him doing so outstandingly well,as predicted by Stacy McCain at "The Other McCain", against all the odds.

Look-the GOP base doesn't want Romney. He received 25% of the vote in Iowa which means that 75% prefer a non-Romney. Further, and even starker, he actually received the same percent of the Iowa vote than he did in 2008!

Although I am a strong Palin supporter and, since she is not running at present I have urged conservatives to support Newt Gingrich, I now urge New Hampshire voters to support Ron Paul as I similarly urged Iowa caucus goers.

The latest polling from New Hampshire, shows only three candidates with a realistic chance of winning, Unfortunately Gingrich, although polling in third place behind Paul is not one of them. 

However, we have to deal with the world as we find it. I don't think Santorum has, in the remaining time left to make his case, the winning of New Hampshire, or for that matter Florida. If he loses both I can't see him winning anywhere else.

Newt is too far off the pace in New Hampshire as are Bachmann and the rest and surely she is now finished. That leaves Romney and Paul. I will never vote for Romney, and am confident that a large number of conservatives feel the same. 

I am also confident that if he is the nominee then Trump will run and the GOP should at that point give up and just support the down tickets to take the senate and hold the house (see my "Palin candidacy only insurance Trump won't run and ensure Obama's re-election).

Thus, in my opinion the very best thing for the GOP would be for Ron Paul, following his  strong showing in Iowa, to win or do very well in New Hampshire ( and of course in Virginia where Newt isn't on the ballot at this time). If that were the case then Gingrich would have a very good chance in Florida and South Carolina and the possibility of a deadlocked convention would be very real. 

If that happens then what is the reality now, as someone said, the "office seeking the woman" would come into play and Sarah Palin would stand every chance of being drafted in Tampa.

For that reason I urge Palin/Gingrich/Santorum/Bachmann supporters (Perry appears to think he still has a chance, as quixotic as that hope may be) to vote for Ron Paul. I personally would not vote for him in any other states but Iowa and New Hampshire and Virginia if I had the vote there, but to vote for him in those two states is good common sense in my opinion. 

Of course each of the candidates supporters would rather see their candidate win in a brokered convention not Palin, but voting for Paul in N.H. is their best chance too.

Paul will not be the nominee but he can, by following up his strong showing in Iowa with a win, or more likely a solid second place showing in New Hampshire, help to ensure the right person is. With Romney having effectively lost in Iowa-even if he manages to squeak out a tiny plurality, (75% voting against  you is not a "win") being, hopefully, held from running away with the New Hampshire primary, he will run up against the "southern wall" where Gingrich should prosper.

The message couldn't be clearer-the overwhelming majority of Republican voters in Iowa voted for someone else besides Romney. he doesn't have a lock on the nomination, he is not the heir apparent next in line and a brokered convention would let the rank and file choose a genuine conservative.

Further the overwhelming number of GOP voters nationwide 75%+ don't want Romney as the nominee;

NB;I note that "Smitty' ( a Virginia resident) at the influential conservative blog 
The Other McCain, appears, under certain circumstances, willing to consider voting for Paul;
"Could I vote for Ron Paul in a primary as a protest against GOP tomfoolery? It sounds mad, but less so over time. . ."

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