After the supposed shock result of the Florida straw poll that saw Herman Cain run away with the result, the GOP nomination is, as it has always been from the start of the campaign season, wide open.
After the media beat-ups for the totally unvetted candidates, Bachmann and Perry, saw their support erode, dramatically in Bachmann's, case once the blowtorch of scrutiny was placed on them, reality has taken over again.
For all of Romney's Beltway/Country Club/Media/Pundit support he clearly does not have the support of the most important grouping-the rank and file. With Perry's support collapsing, under the weight of vetting and his own incompetence in debate, Romney would have been expected to have picked up that support and have sealed the deal.
That Herman Cain, again a totally unvetted candidate, with none of the traditional political history in governing (in fact in even winning an election) or foreign affairs, ran away with the straw poll speaks volumes. Cain is personable, speaks well, and most importantly for the Florida voters looking for an alternative to Perry whose conservative bona fides were blasted in the last debate, Cain is not Mitt Romney.
With Romney unable to break out of his vote support level, Cain unvetted, and Perry in danger of joining Bachmann as yesterday's person the search for a viable non-Romney continues.
This is why the Beltway elite are frantically pushing the Christie barrow. Christie is certainly an alternative to Romney, and stands on the traditional side of the GOP ledger, even as his personality is non-traditional.
How the elites consider Christie would have any more appeal to the rank and file-who have signalled clearly they want a true conservative, is a mystery to rational minds, but desperation coupled with elitism has clouded their judgement.
It would be unfair I think to submit Christie and his family to the depth of attacks and satire about his weight that would ensue. Even the most thick skinned would wilt under the attacks, and frankly it might endanger his life if he were to have to submit to the physical challenges of a long campaign (he has recently had a hospital episode).
The stage is very much set, should they choose to enter the lists, for Giuliani from the left and Palin from the right to enter. Giuliani, when he has been included in polls, has done extremely well (ahead of all candidates) considering he has not declared. One poll had him out in front of President Obama in a head to head match up. He appeals to Independents, would attract support from Catholics, has a proven record, is admired and has been vetted.
He could well take on Romney in debate and would lift the tenor of the campaign all round.
Giuliani could attract the support of Independents in the industrial states, polls well in New Hampshire and Florida, and could give a genuine contest on the left of the party without the distortion of the Beltway elites intervention.
Should Palin declare, the rank and file would of course have a vetted candidate. She could absorb the support of the eventual non-candidacies of Santorum/Cain/Bachmann which, added to her currentproven third place support level, would put her at or near the top.
If Perry's support collapses further, especially if Palin declares and she picks up his supporters, then if Giuliani ran and split the vote with Romney her path to the nomination would be made that much clearer.
With that scenario, if Trump endorses her, (he is waiting upon her decision) with his million plus level of public support, and financial backing, she should have the nomination sewn up.
The time has never been better for Palin and Giuliani to tip their hands. If both enter Palin has every chance of being the nominee. If both enter and Giuliani splits the vote on the right he has every chance of being the king, or rather queen maker, if nobody comes to the convention with enough votes to ensure the nomination .
At that point a little horse trading could see a Palin/Giuliani ticket which is, to my mind a winning one. It is a perfect balance of east/west, city/country/experience in governing / foreign experience, Protestant/Catholic/male/female conservative/ liberal.
A ticket for the times. A further examination of why Palin is the best for the GOP including the most recent Giuliani vs Obama poll where he leads Obama AT THIS LINK
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