Tuesday, September 27, 2011

The Truth; Tea Party 50.4% Old Guard 29.5% GOP Go With Majority or Lose Soul/Election

No matter how much the Beltway pushes for a "next in line" Dole/McCain candidate. No matter the country club faction casting longing eyes towards Chris Christie the rank and file just don't want Romney/Christie/Bush. Daniels and Pawlenty gave up before they started or immediately after they started as they saw the writing on the wall.

That the rank and file are not impressed with Perry, the previous rising star and cast a protest vote for Cain in Florida shows that no matter what they will not move en mass to Romney.

Irrespective of what the media says, what the George Wills want here are the indisputable facts taken from a moving average of polls. These are the unvarnished undistorted facts as one poll may be cooked but an aggregate of polls, over time, have such a large count that they give as near an accurate figure as can be determined and free from prejudice.

If such an aggregate gives a faction-in this instance the conservative, Tea Party grouping of GOP voters not just a lead but an overwhelming one then that is a true reflection of where the party is at this point in time. That the faction has not settled on a standard bearer does not negate the fact that their opinions are predominant.

That the prospective candidate list is not settled yet as Palin, and possibly Giuliani at least, may enter and if they do the picture will change again but the Tea party dominance will not change. Of course, Palin's poll aggregate would increase strikingly once/if she declares, and Giuliani would eat into Romney's support.

The Real Clear Politics aggregate of Republican candidate support  is as follows (by faction)

Tea Party/Conservative support:     50.4% (Perry/Palin/Bachman/Cain/Santorum)
Old Guard:                                     29.5% (Romney/Gingrich/Huntsman)
Libertarian:                                      8.7%   (Paul/Johnson)
Undecided/Other:                           11.4%

The danger for the majority GOP voters is that Romney might win on a split vote, especially in the larger vote states even if he loses Iowa and South Carolina early on. This was the McCain scenario and the end result would be a large stay at home vote from those on the right who simply can't bring themselves to vote for Romney, even if Obama is re-elected as a neutered second termer.  They will bide their time till 2016 and have a genuine conservative lead the party.   

The figures don't lie no matter what the media says. Nothing will be decided until Palin declares-if she runs she can unite the majority behind her. If she doesn't run the GOP may simply throw the election away, no matter what the siren song of "Romney can win the Independents and beat Obama" may be. He may win the Independents (and may not as the media turns on him as they surely will) but he may lose the Tea Party vote and the party may lose its very soul for four years.

Here is the truth on what the rank and file want:


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