Friday, September 30, 2011

Giuliani's Exploring N.Hampshire.Romney's Nightmare/Palin's Hope Media Missing Boat Looking At Christie



The media with their flavor of the month attempt at a political reality, show as Sarah Palin so rightly described what is happening, is flitting from candidate to candidate trying  to drum up excitement and sell whatever media they work for.


Daniels/Pawlenty/Bachmann/Perry have come and gone, to one degree or another, after massive media puff ups. This is happening because the putative front runner, Romney, adds no color or excitement that they can work up, so friend and foe alike are raised into some level of lather or excitement. They have even dragged up the political dead end of Mike Huckabee today, with  another in the series of "will he run-he's seriously considering it" nonsense which was shot down straight away.


The media beat up du jour is of course Chris Christie. He has denied that he will run so many times that it is embarrassing to see the level of degradation of journalism that has ensued, as they try to make "No" into "Yes." Some have milked this scenario by advising that if Christie succumbed to their siren song it would be unfair to him. This because it would "endanger his health." So they will have been a significant party to that scenario, and would of course have plenty of articles to write about like "The tragedy of Christie." It's all very  sad. Eugene Robinson leads the tut tut charge. What a gift to fair weather friends and late night satirists Christie is.


What is also very sad is that the media are missing the true story. It was hardly remarked on that Giuliani's team is in New Hampshire making a final exploratory bid. Final, because time is running out due to the need to register as a candidate. Giuliani himself stated clearly on Fox that he was still thinking of running, and would decide by the end of October, which is the cut off date for entry in reality, due to the process requirements.


It is Giuliani who is the nightmare candidate for Romney, not Perry or Huckabee. If Palin declares, and picks up the support that initially went to Bachmann in Iowa, and pulls off a win there, she would be very strongly placed for South Carolina. 


The tenor of this article was, most interestingly, promoted by the uber-Palin supporting site "Conservatives4Palin" There is I believe a significant advantage for an eventual Palin/Giuliani ticket as set out at the link.


Romney would expect to win New Hampshire handily, but if Giuliani, as a fellow East Coast, establishment-centrist representative, was in the mix, Romney and Giuliani could very well split the establishment vote (with Huntsman also taking votes from Romney). This result could give Palin the win if she was, after Iowa, the last true conservative left standing. In one New Hampshire poll Giuliani was highly placed, as he was also when added to the mix in Florida, another key Romney state.


With all three states in the bag then, with the large industrial states on a proportional allocation basis, thus blunting a Romney advantage further, Palin could be well on her way to the nomination. If Donald Trump, as seems very possible, endorses her too, she would have it sewn up.

REFERENCES:
Perry 20%/Giuliani 14%/ Palin13% Marist Poll

Huntsman campaign moves to New Hampshire after gaining traction

Rudy Giuliani sends a key emissary to New Hampshire to test a possible run

Top Giuliani advisor meets with New Hampshire Republicans

Enter Palin/Giuliani stage right and stage left

Trump run will ensure Obama election unless he endorses Palin

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