Tuesday, September 20, 2011

McClatchy Poll Shows: Obama Will Lose To Palin Based On Historic Precedents

Marist/McClatchy Poll: Governor Palin Is Now Within 5 of Obama after trailing him by 26 in June. According to Dick Morris's analysis,  any president below 50% is vulnerable to lose to the challenger, as the undecided vote goes overwhelmingly against the president. On that basis, not only is Palin doing better than Rick Perry against Obama in this poll but she, by taking the bulk of the undecideds as per the Morris formula, would be elected.

Obama 49

Palin 44

She is a stronger general election candidate than Rick Perry as he trails Obama by a 50-41 margin (Michele Bachmann trails Obama by a 13-point margin).

Governor Palin has cut Obama’s 26-point lead in June….by 80%.

The biggest gain came for Palin, the former Alaska governor who hasn’t yet announced whether she’ll jump into the fast-changing race for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

After trailing Obama by more than 20 percentage points in polls all year, the new national survey, taken Sept. 13-14, found Palin trailing the president by just 5 points, 49-44 percent. The key reason: She now leads Obama among independents, a sharp turnaround.

This results, which seems to come as a surprise to the reporters covering the story-which it shouldn't if they spent any time away from their prejudices-and looked at the facts as shown in the chart linked below: (and this report which shows Obama trailing Palin in West Virginia)


"Obama trails Palin by 14 with independents in North Carolina, that's when you know you're having a bad month."

Even the Daily Kos Pollster Shows that Governor Palin Has Turned an 18-Point Deficit Among NC Independents Into a 14-Point Lead in One Month/Open Thread



Palin 51

Obama 38


Independents; Obama 53 Palin 38

The media continues its "unelectable" campaign against Palin and the GOP establishment including those media personalities who have chosen their favorites e.g. Coulter, who has swooned for Christie, have switched into all out attack mode against her.

What goes unremarked upon was Palin's solid third place at 14% in the Washington Post /ABC poll-when she is not even a declared candidate and Perry has received the star treatment.

Digging down further into where the statistics can't lie, because they are an aggregate of polls, the  Real Clear Politics aggregate of Palin versus Obama belies all the negativity directed against her as the unmistakable trend line  shows:

Further, as this compilation of recent polls shows Palin's 41% in the ABC poll is her highest rating with smallest gap between her and Obama since November 2010. The Rasmussen poll distorts the aggregate because they measure likely voters but even here the result is striking with Palin having closed the gap by 5 points in under a month with President Obama being below the 50% mark against her for the first time since March

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