Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Huge Trend To Palin, Obama Vs Palin Poll Media Keeps Hidden

As reported the latest McClatchy poll shows Sarah Palin within 5 points of president Obama and in fact doing better against him than media flavor of the month Rick Perry.


This is the latest in a series of polls that show an unmistakable trend towards Palin e.g. the West Virginia poll that shows her ahead of the president and others as set out in THIS LINK.


Some commentators have said they think the McClatchy poll is an "outlier" and want to see more polls showing a similar result before they will accept it. It may indeed be the case that this poll has overstated Palin's support for whatever internal mechanism they use, conversely the poll may have underestimated her support and the margin of error may have her actually only one point behind Obama.


There is another poll analysis, which the media never comments on, that shows the true picture however. LINK Real Clear Politics keeps a rolling aggregate of all major polls which show an Obama versus Palin result. 


Since this is an aggregate analysis is smooths out sudden spikes or drops and results that show a reaction to a particular news event. This aggregate result would be the most reflective of the true position because of the massive number of people polled and lack of bias.


Here is the current RCP aggregate poll result. As can be seen Palin is 11.2% behind President Obama today which result reflects polls going back for some time. However, the trend line is unmistakeable and shows the gap closing inexorably.


On August 8th the result was Obama 55% Palin 35% (the poll is interactive when you go to the site) a gap of 20 points. As of today it is 11.2% and thus has closed by 8.8% in just over 6 weeks. On current  trends they will be equal in about two months. If Palin declares a presidential run it might be expected the gap would close even faster.


It is no wonder the liberal media does not show this picture.

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