Friday, January 6, 2012

NRO; If Romney's The Nominee He Will Lose-Well Duh

Michael Walsh at ( linked at)  NRO's The Corner  states the bleeding obvious"simple arithmetic" he advises that the GOP don't want Romney because he can't get more than 25% support no matter who the latest non-Romney flavor of the week is.

"Some people today seem to have trouble with my formulation that the consistent anti-Romney sentiment (for such it is) of around 75 percent — reflected in the Iowa caucuses results — is somehow logically fallacious, and that one could just as easily make the same short-end equation regarding Perry, Paul, Gingrich, Bachmann, et al. 

They entirely miss the point. From the start of the GOP race, the contest has been divided between Mitt Romney on one side and Everybody Else Plus Ron Paul on the other, as conservatives examined possible alternatives to the front-runner, Willard. This explains the sine-wave shape of the race so far, with various not-Romneys rising and then falling as they have been weighed in the balance and found wanting."

He the goes on to quote John Podhoretz statement that Romney is the weakest front runner in  contemporary  political history.

Why is this worthy of "analysis" when it is so obvious? I made (reproduced below) what I would have thought was the last word on the subject, slightly embarrassed that I would have to state something that even blind Bob good see but no, the media is pretending that somehow Romney is what the GOP rank and file wants.

The GOP is heading to an embarrassing farce of a campaign. I am confident that if Romney is the nominee through a fractured opposition, an unprecedented number of conservatives will vote down ticket only-if they even show up in November and of course there is an excellent chance for a Trump and or Paul run which would kill Romney's chance utterly.

Walsh advises Romney has no chance anyway against the Obama machine which is just waiting to unload on him which is of course correct. A Santorum nomination would mean a loss with dignity, a Gingrich nomination might actually bring a win, a brokered convention with a Palin nomination-what excitement no matter the result! A Romney nomination would-well, it's all been said, everything else about such a nomination would be sound and fury signifying nothing.


The writing on the wall; Iowa's Caucus result;
Romney 25 % 
Non-Romney 75 %

Or in even starker than that terms-Romney actually received the same percentage that he did in 2008!

One could of course divide out any of the non-Romney's e.g. Gingrich, and get a stark result e.g. Gingrich 14 % Non-Gingrich 
  84% but that  of course misses the point altogether.

The point is that Romney is supposed to be the inevitable nominee, the owner of the "next in line, it's his turn" mantle. That flies in the face of the consistent Iowa polling and tonight's result. Let's face facts, what we see in Iowa is Christian conservatives/libertarians 76%  RINO/Beltway/Mormon 24 %   

The rank and file don't want Romney. He may win in New Hampshire, but the polls so far show that the majority of Republicans in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida don't want him. 

Neither does a massive 75% of GOP voters nationwide;

It may be an anti-RINO feeling which may dissipate to some degree come November, but reading conservative blogs there is a dogged determination not to vote for a RINO this time. 

If Romney does get the nomination, via the fracturing of the conservative vote, the  subsequent stay at home level of usual GOP voters could doom his campaign-if Trump and Gary Johnson have not done so anyway.

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